General Discussion

General DiscussionMMR Distribution

MMR Distribution in General Discussion
Nemesis

    http://dota2toplist.com/statistics

    The median is ~3800.

    I'm pretty sure everyone above 5k is going to be top 1%. I'm guessing the top 1% mark is probably around 4800.

    Now, before you go on about self-report bias, keep in mind that the actual statistics (which we don't know yet) is far more likely to resemble this than what they posted on the blog a while back, which was based off unranked:

    5% 1100
    10% 1500
    25% 2000
    50% 2250
    75% 2731
    90% 3200
    95% 3900
    99% 4100

    Reason?

    Any new player who isn't a retard and picks up on the game at a modest pace should be over 2000 MMR within a month. Within a year, who knows...if s/he works on the right concepts/mechanics, attaining 4000 MMR is indeed likely. The average, casual player should be 3000-3500 after a year. Depends on if you focus on the right things or if you're just "playing for fun."

    Sorry to disappoint you Relentless but I don't think there's evidence to support most of your claims. I recall you were saying how a 2700 MMR player was still "much better" than half the players...while it is true that people who post on Dotabuff tend to be much better than average, that's hardly a compliment since average just means running around the map and dying randomly.

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    Hopeless

      old and not even remotely accurate news.

      but hey, that is quite a nice friend list you got there. Melody sat xan and beesa... you sir have taste.

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      Trodlabundin

        I read, but didn't really get the point of the thread. Maybe I'm just tired.

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        Nemesis

          It's amazing how far asking for/accepting random friend requests can get you.

          @ dangdang just saying that the "real median" is probably much closer to 3800 than 2300. I mean I think most people who have even the slightest bit of experience can win pubs at 2300 with 1 hand tied behind their backs and a blindfold on. They remind me of the old dota 1 "dota -apem us/ca NO NOOBS!!!!!!1111" pub games which I won't elaborate on, but you get the point.

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          FlipFlop

            can we check the mmr distribution based on the server? like sea ranked 5k how many players, europe 5k how many players etc

            Nemesis

              sadly we cannot, though the number of 5k players on eu west should > all

              assuming it's based on server skill (eu west > sea > eu east > us east) i would assume sea has a good number of 5k players.

              but yes, it would be great if valve released the statistics based on region.

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              Fakovnik

                maybe, for sample of 8139 players,
                but no way that median from all players is 3800,
                ofc, mainly good players would join site like dota2toplist.com, "casual" players don't care or don't even know such site exist,

                Relots

                  Speaking from a scrub player's perspective, I'd say that Concede, and WiT.HiN_T are on the mark. Im a lowly 2780 Party MMR, and it's not at all uncommon for me to go against a full team of Anonymous. Most players at/near/under my MMR don't know or care about sites like Toplist or even Dotabuff.

                  Feel free to flame me if you want. I am a scrub player from a below trench tier bracket, so it'll be understood.

                  I don't know if Relentless is right or not with his saying that I (2780mmr) am much better than half the players, but I can say from experience that as bad as I am, there are a ton of players MUCH worse than me out there.

                  6_din_49

                    @Symphonia
                    Dude, I have friends that play like 3-4 games per day and they still did not finish their calibration games. They simply don't care about ranked. Also, if you'd have 2000 mmr, would you make it public?

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                    bontscho

                      i'm almost certain that dota2toplist avg and median mmr is biased towards better players. the question is how far from the real value.
                      another guy did an experiment on reddit that put the average to 3.6 (http://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/202c2z/ranked_mmr_survey_and_game_mode_stats/)

                      as soon as i have more time, i will provide more statistics on dota2toplist, just very busy atm

                      Dire Wolf

                        There's no way to get an accurate number without some qualifiers. Are you including every account that has done the calibration games and has a number? Or only accounts that play at least once a week? Or what? If you include every single account I'll be the number is a lot like the old one where 2300 is a top half number. There are so many players who try the game a few times and essentially quit.

                        bontscho

                          dota2toplist is strictly opt-in, so i doubt that players that quit are really present there. it's most likely that regular players or players who take the game more serious to join the toplist hence the high probability of biasing towards higher mmr.

                          currently the distribution graphs are considering every player on record. i will flesh out and distinguish more as soon as i have more time for that

                          Quick maffs

                            Think about this, not everyone knows about this site and people who is more into dota will know about this site, making more probably that the ones with bigger mmr will be the ones that post they mmr in this place.

                            Just wait for official numbers by valve

                            Nolf_

                              I don't know why people are upset about this.

                              This site provides the best info we can get so far.

                              Every other "distribution" charts were made by people who could input their rating as they wish, ie many people could provide fake numbers.

                              Of course it is not perfect, but since valve is not very cooperative, this is the best we can have now. Just encourage more people to join the site and share their mmr, and the statistics will get more legit.

                              Hopeless

                                people aren't upset. It is just clearly inaccurate.

                                It really isn't the best info we have available. Valves pre ranked distribution is still a much more accurate barometer.

                                Nolf_

                                  Well we are not sure which accounts were considered in valve's distribution. If they consider every lvl 1 account with 2 games played, then I would say their distribution is inaccurate. Who knows, they don't communicate much.

                                  Also from that blog "Note that this distribution is from normal matchmaking. We don’t know yet what the distribution will be in ranked matchmaking, but we expect it to be different."

                                  The distribution from site OP posted is from ranked only matches, meaning of course it is different from unranked only matches which valve used for their distribution.

                                  For ranked you need to be at least lvl 13 I think, which naturally reduces the pool of players and skews the distribution. But to be honest that is better, since I don't consider players who played like 50 matches to be worth being calculated into distributions.

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                                  Gustaphos

                                    I thought the median would be like the 50% mark, where you are average, above average. Not the 95% mark. Where are you pulling these numbers from?

                                    6_din_49

                                      It's like calculating the average wage of USA based on wages from Microsoft.

                                      Nolf_

                                        @-hg- Cpt. Caveman Valve made the distribution from NORMAL (unranked) matchmaking. We don't know which accounts were considered (if even players who played only 1 match, or there was some requirement, we don't know).

                                        This is what Valve said right below their distribution.
                                        "Note that this distribution is from normal matchmaking. We don’t know yet what the distribution will be in ranked matchmaking, but we expect it to be different. The players who participate in ranked matchmaking will be more skilled, more experienced players. We anticipate that any given player will have different expectations and play the game differently in ranked matchmaking compared to normal matchmaking."

                                        As you can see, Valve expected that mmr distribution of RANKED players will be different, generally with higher ratings.

                                        Now, to your question where does the site (toplist) takes their numbers from. They have bots that add you as friend (for example like dotalounge bots) and then via Steam API read your rating. Thats it. edit: You can keep the bot in your friend list and it will update your rating graph on the site every 24h

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                                        Nolf_

                                          people should stop taking distribution of unranked and ranked players as the same, it is not

                                          Minion

                                            "It's like calculating the average wage of USA based on wages from Microsoft."

                                            Exactly this.

                                            Ranked players will be better in general... not to mention the ones who take the time to put their name on the dota2toplist CARE about their RMMR.

                                            djgandy

                                              I think you could make a reasonable guess at how exclusive each MMR ranking is by seeing how often players meet on opposing teams in games and also how often a person in an MMR gets matched with a pro. I mean people at 4k or so have been matched with Dendi before which suggests the amount of players gets pretty thin above that level.

                                              The list is heavily biased anyway. Just look at the amount of pro's /twitch streamers in the list. The sample is heavily skewed.

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                                              Nemesis

                                                "Wages from Microsoft?" Hardly, look at how few sub 2k's opted in. Is it surprising there is a dearth of players below 2k in ranked? Not at all - if you put in a slight amount of effort to improve and understand the game, I don't see how you wouldn't be 2k or above in a month even if you just started playing.

                                                Yes, ranked players will be better in general, but keep in mind this isn't because Volvo waved a magic wand and now all the percentiles are miles ahead. It's because UNRANKED contains people who do not even try to win the game/play 10 games and quit/troll in game - it's like if you took some random person off the street, beat him/her at chess with your 1600 ELO, and then claimed you were great cuz you won against 99% of laypeople when in fact your percentile is much closer to 80%. It doesn't mean anything.

                                                I can understand why people would rationalize 3800 is a bit higher than it should be, but I am pretty certain (like 90%) that the actual median for ranked is much closer to 3800 than 2300.

                                                djgandy, the list is skewed towards the right, but I am strictly talking about the median, which should remove the outliers (the 6k's).

                                                @ comment below

                                                yea, i don't presume it's perfect, but once again, it should be much more accurate than the distribution for unranked

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                                                whoji

                                                  it IS inaccurate. But that's the BEST estimate we have so far.

                                                  More appropriate title for those statistics: MMR distribution for non-noob dota2 player

                                                  why we want noob in the statistics, right ? we those stats = good stats

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                                                  Quick maffs

                                                    "It's like calculating the average wage of USA based on wages from Microsoft."

                                                    "people should stop taking distribution of unranked and ranked players as the same, it is not"

                                                    You are both correct

                                                    Waiting for valve ~

                                                    Dire Wolf

                                                      "I can understand why people would rationalize 3800 is a bit higher than it should be, but I am pretty certain (like 90%) that the actual median for ranked is much closer to 3800 than 2300."

                                                      A 3800 player is like 4 times as good as a 2300 player. The absolute worst players I know are around 2500-2700. And they are badddd. I can't imagine a 2300 player. And the best players I know, one is over 4k, the other couple are 3800 and significently better than me, not like doubly so but enough. So saying the median is much closer to 3800 than 2300 is like saying the median change in a person's pocket is much close to 1000 dollars than a 5 dollar bill. It doesn't mean much, there's still a gigantic gap.

                                                      I personally feel the median is right around 3k

                                                      Mia

                                                        Its around 2500. Dota has millions of players not 8000 and people all think they are god at all MMRs when they suck major balls.

                                                        Example:
                                                        http://dotabuff.com/players/139135476

                                                        This guy is a IRL friend of mine that i got him into doto. He currently has a MMR of 2130. He cant last hit properly and has 0 map awareness and knows 0 mechanics in dota but still thinks he is good and even better than me because the trashcans that are his friends tell him to not listen to me when i try to teach him what to do. They all believe they are all better than me while the few times i played with them they only fed because they cant handle ratings to be averaged. I've only played 3-4 matches with them.

                                                        http://dotabuff.com/matches/250876482
                                                        All but bristle are his friends. I was called a no skilled kill stealer.

                                                        http://dotabuff.com/matches/507687586
                                                        I was called a noob because apparently i cant carry as hard as a fed brood+slark+wk+bh+Lc

                                                        AND THESE PEOPLE ACTUALLY WIN IN THEIR TRASH TIER.

                                                        The average MMR is around 2500.
                                                        /thread

                                                        PS: im currently at 4.3k

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                                                        Born

                                                          id say around 3.5 is average..

                                                          Dire Wolf

                                                            When you group with people that much lower than you I actually find it tough to win cus odds are the opposing team is a mix of like 3k players vs your team of 2500 and you at 4k+. Thus your entire team gets dominated in their lanes and you have to overcome really difficult odds.

                                                            I understand your point of view completely though, my garbage friends have decent stats in their own teir. And I think hey I'm pretty decent until I play against some really great players and get dominated. It's all relative.

                                                            Quick maffs

                                                              3.5 is average i think

                                                              sano

                                                                I'd say average is around 3k.

                                                                King of Low Prio

                                                                  a average player in SA is like 6k

                                                                  whoji

                                                                    agree with ~3.5k average

                                                                    Hakuna Matata

                                                                      Even heard of selection bias or self selection?

                                                                      Gustaphos

                                                                        http://blog.dota2.com/2013/12/matchmaking/

                                                                        I guess according to steam 50% are at 2250 mmr. I was really looking for "are you better than 50% of the people out there" direction not what perception of an "average" player is according to dotabuffers.

                                                                        I really can believe that. I have this guy cpt. kirk he is about 2200 mmr and i play with his family and they're about the same mmr. Worlds apart from 3k. Still climbing here! Good luck to you guys this weekend! ;)

                                                                        Chris.

                                                                          sanos mmr is 2150. satelizer can confirm

                                                                          sano

                                                                            at least my MMR is honest

                                                                            you're 3.5k abusing vrok strat

                                                                            VROK STRAT

                                                                            VROK STRAT

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                                                                            Satellizer

                                                                              2150 with tinker
                                                                              1320 with other heroes

                                                                              Alation

                                                                                i bet average is around 2.5k because the majority of players are 3ks, then people higher and people lower. but there are way more people below 3k as the ones above it 3k and 4k are in the top percentages if were talking about ranked obviously a little higher like 3k as previously stated

                                                                                Low Expectations

                                                                                  To the person who said she cant imagine hlw bad people at 2k MMR are.
                                                                                  http://dotabuff.com/matches/572924364

                                                                                  The three anonymous on my team were a stack. 2k tiny 2,3k QoP and weaver 4,3 (I am about 3,4k atm)I was with weaver and we crcrushed the lane an the 2k tony and QoP played fine actually we played 4v5 all the game (PA was standard rus) and we still managed to win(barely).

                                                                                  There is less diffrence between the diffrent MMR than you think. I count tell at all that their mmr was so low, by the way thdy were playing I would have guessed PA was 2k mmr

                                                                                  6_din_49

                                                                                    Most 2.5k players I played with are actually decent at farming / using their skills, but they suck at map awareness and evaluating when to fight and when to retreat. Also most of them are afraid to initiate, regardless of the hero they play.

                                                                                    In ranked I agree the average is ~3k, but in unranked for sure there are millions of players that did not play ranked yet. My bet is that less then 10% of players play ranked regularly (at least half of games they play weekly).

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                                                                                    Miku Plays

                                                                                      " sadly we cannot, though the number of 5k players on eu west should > all

                                                                                      assuming it's based on server skill (eu west > sea > eu east > us east) i would assume sea has a good number of 5k players.

                                                                                      but yes, it would be great if valve released the statistics based on region. "

                                                                                      wheres the australian server TT.TT

                                                                                      Yoichi Isagi | Blue Lock

                                                                                        A smurf who get's 60% with 150 games can get placement ranked 4k+. So yea there's no real 'oh I'm so good' bracket.

                                                                                        No friends only solo ranked

                                                                                          I feel like the whole mmr thing is just bullshit, i have a 4.2k mmr because in calibration i just played clockwerk and slark and stomped scrubs (my total kdr between all matches was like 3.5) and won 9/10 matches. And then i know some friends of mine who have like 2.2k mmrs yet they are much better players than me.

                                                                                          yiran

                                                                                            o.o

                                                                                            BenaoLifedancer

                                                                                              thats the reason 4k is filled with trash such as yourself. but they eventually get down to 2k so i guess its ok

                                                                                              Von Darkmoor

                                                                                                Feel like lots of player play inmatching games and get high rating 4,5-5,5k then drop down and start a new account and do the same honestly i think everyone should be forced to play their inplay matches then start a lets say 3-3,5 k rating no mather what and if their good enought they will rise if their not they will stay if they are horrible they will sink like stones.

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                                                                                                Yoichi Isagi | Blue Lock

                                                                                                  IF valve implemented a drop of 500 mmr every month for inactive players. Also ban outright multi-accounters. Since they do have access to IP address and computer logs.

                                                                                                  mwsqz

                                                                                                    i just dont knwo hwo its gonna work in the future
                                                                                                    ppl will have 9k
                                                                                                    and they will play with 4x2k mmr in their team

                                                                                                    ♨Dacheat♨

                                                                                                      What a fukken bumperino

                                                                                                      Luxon

                                                                                                        I know about 25 people who play dota in my town and the highest MMR is like 2.7k .