i have 10games TBD
If Frank's friend is to believed, the drop will probably happen.
first game of the calibration is always played at ur current hidden mmr, even if it is 7k or above
i've said it 1000000 times:
first calibration game has the same mmr as your UNRANKED MMR, game 2-10 adjusts it.
like tripple said, you can have 7k unranked, but YOU WILL BE ADJUSTED TO 3.5K even if you play beyond perfectly
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i have 10games TBD, first game is 4.2K mmr. the new maximum calibration is 3.5K right? will it drop to 3.5K when i finish my TBD?