Don't even think winrate matters in the first few games when determining skill. I've seen people win 20% of their first 30-40 games and still get into VHS.
i think if win rate is close to potato then the bracket can have a cat for sure, but cucumber get invisible when rain
WROOOONG
after intial calibration (first 10 matches on a new acc) unranked mmr behaves almost the same as ranked mmr
you win you get +25, you lose you get -25- you just can't see the unranked mmr, but it's still there.
Any winrate above 50% will give you VHS sooner or later, 51% might take you a year; 70% would take you a couple of days.
Now there are exceptions to this, ex. if you didn't play unranked for a long time it can re-calibrate or if you play ranked a long time then your unranked can follow without having to play it.
so yea, git gud scrub, at your current 40% winrate you're literally never getting to VHS
solo and party have nothing to do with each other, they're completely separate.
as you can see from your profile the system accidentally put you into HS and you've been slowly getting down where you belong - NS.
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with this winrate I must forget high skill and vhs ?? :( or I can do something I ply with my friend in party too ... their mmr was low - ns